July 27, 2026 Economic and Housing Market Outlook

July 27, 2026

Reports and articles referenced:

• Featured Reports:
• What’s Ahead:
  • Macro Indicators:
    • Housing Vacancy Survey (Census Bureau): expected Tuesday, July 28
    • S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index: expected Tuesday, July 28
    • FOMC interest rate decision: expected Wednesday, July 29
    • Freddie Mac mortgage rates: expected Thursday, July 30
  • Realtor.com Reports:
    • Monday, July 27: Summer 2026 WSJ/Realtor.com Housing Market Ranking and Luxury Housing Market Ranking
    • Tuesday, July 28: 2026Q2 New York City Rental Trends
    • Wednesday, July 29: Lowkey Lux, Delaware spotlight 
    • Thursday, July 30: 2026Q2 Los Angeles Rental Market
• Recent Reports:

Housing data for download:

Video Script:

• Introduction:

  • If you’re flexible on where to live or looking to invest in a second home, where can you find a place that offers solid real estate fundamentals, a healthy economic backdrop, and a quality of life you—or your renters—can actually enjoy? Today’s featured report has the answer.
  • I’m Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, and this is The Weekly Housing Outlook, our forward-looking guide to the housing market, built for the beginning of your week.
    

• Featured Report:

  • Today’s featured report is really a two-for one. Each quarter, we partner with the Wall Street Journal to find the top-ranked housing markets in America, analyzing  both the typical market and the high-end luxury space.
  • Senior Economist Hannah Jones analyzed data on the 200 largest metros to find markets where housing market conditions are ripe for growth, local economies are thriving, and livability is high. One standout among the top 20-ranked markets is affordability. In five of these top 20 markets, local incomes actually exceed what’s recommended for affordable homebuying. That is a marked contrast to the broader top 200 markets where local incomes average nearly 20% lower than what’s needed to buy a home. The average income across the top-20 is still 8% behind what’s recommended to buy a home.
  • We’re seeing a lot of stability on the list, with Midwest and Mid-Atlantic markets returning quarter after quarter. Two markets are particularly notable. First – Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis stands out as the largest market in the top 20, exemplifying what works in the Midwest. Milwaukee boasts affordable home prices alongside sizable local demand from both from within the metro and nearby hubs like Chicago and Minneapolis.
  • Second – Champaign-Urbana, Illinois surged onto the list as prices climbed rapidly. Sometimes a sudden surge indicates a short-term spike that won’t be sustained, so we’ll keep an eye on this market.
  • Senior Economist Anthony Smith published our companion analysis focused on 60 curated luxury markets. He found a fair amount of stability in the rankings and a few notable changes too. Pittsfield, Massachusetts—home to the Berkshires—took over the number one spot, driven by rich lifestyle amenities, shorter commutes, a lower cost of living, and rising high-end home values.
    
  • We also saw two new-entrants break into the luxury top-ten: Provo-Orem, Utah, and Atlanta, Georgia. Provo-Orem joins Salt Lake City, reflecting similar economic and lifestyle strengths that are found across the Beehive state. Atlanta stands out as the largest metro near the top of the luxury list, offering a more accessible high-end price point that is actively driving luxury appreciation higher.

• The Week Ahead:

  • Let’s turn to the week in front of us, and the economic indicators and research I’ve got my eye on. The Realtor.com economics team will be tracking and interpreting these over the next five days. 
  • Today, Senior Economist Hannah Jones published the Summer 2026 Wall Street Journal/Realtor.com Housing Market Ranking and Senior Economist Anthony Smith published the Summer 2026 Wall Street Journal/Realtor.com Luxury Housing Market Ranking.
  • On Tuesday, we’ll release our second quarter look at New York City rental trends by Economist Jiayi Xu.
  • On Wednesday, Anthony Smith returns with a brand-new report series called “Lowkey Lux,” kicking off with a spotlight on high-end homes in Delaware.
  • On Thursday, Jiayi Xu is back with a look at what happened in the Los Angeles rental market in the second quarter.
  • The economic data we’re tracking this week includes the Housing Vacancy Survey on Tuesday. This Census Bureau release includes information on the homeownership rate as well as vacancy rates for both rental homes and owner-occupied housing. The homeownership rate has surprised me recently with its stability despite the relatively tough affordability conditions that exist, especially for first-time home buyers. I’m watching to see if rates across demographics, specifically for younger and lower-income households, continue to show resilience. Looking at vacancy rates, while we’ve not seen much change each quarter, the cumulative movement in the rental market has pushed vacancy rates back toward pre-pandemic norms, but, for owner-occupied housing, they still remain below that 2019 threshold.
  • We’ll also see Case-Shiller home price data on Tuesday. I know it’s July, but this data takes a long time to compile. This week’s release will reflect prices of sales that closed in March to May. I expect to see modest national growth, a pattern we’ve seen for several months now, and varied city-level performance. For the past few readings there have been regional splits around the national norm, with Midwest and Northeast cities leading growth, while Southern and Western markets ease.
  • On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC concludes its 2-day meeting and will announce its decision on interest rates. I don’t expect a rate change after this meeting, but there is a sizable minority that is betting on a rate hike in July, according to the most recent futures data. More likely, we’ll get a signal confirming the market’s existing expectations for a quarter point rate hike in September.
  • Mortgage rates have mostly priced in a hawkish Fed and September rate hike, so we shouldn’t see too much additional pressure from the Fed’s meeting. To the extent that we get any surprises, I think we’re far more likely to see one that pushes rates higher than one that nudges them lower. Thursday’s PCE inflation reading–the Fed’s preferred gauge–could be one such surprise. The bigger wildcard driver of rates that I see continues to be conflict in the Middle East. My expertise doesn’t give me special insight into the way tensions will develop, but I will note that escalation has generally been associated with higher rates. If you have mortgage-rate related questions, drop them in the comments—every Thursday Anthony Smith and other Realtor.com economists respond in our weekly mortgage rate deep-dive video.

• The Weekly Review:

  • To see where the market is actually heading, we need to look back at the full slate of major updates that were released last week.
  • It was a relatively quiet week for economic data. Mortgage rates edged up 3 basis points on Thursday, to 6.58%. While rates are lower than at this time last year, whether we can continue to say that or not really depends on the conflict. Economist Jiayi Xu discussed this with Anthony Smith in our Mortgage Rate Update video.
  • I think it’s more likely that we see further escalation in mortgage rates over the next week or so. Rates are currently just 16 basis points below their year-ago level and we’re lapping the beginning of the gradual decline in the second half of last year that culminated in February’s sub 6% rates. Put simply, mortgage rates will need to do an about-face if we are to continue to see rates that are lower than one year prior. For home shoppers, if you set a budget within the last year, it may be worth revisiting to make sure that your target price is still right for your desired house payment. And while you do that, consider a range of rates so that you know how small changes affect your monthly costs.
  • Turning to June New Home Sales, we saw sales up 1.6% to 628,000 from May’s upwardly revised tally. June was still another relatively soft month with sales down 5.6% from last year. Supply and demand remain near recent highs with 9.3 months of new home inventory for sale. Senior Economist Joel Berner noted that regionally, sales in the West were especially soft while the Midwest was the only region seeing growth across the first-half of the year.
  • It’s important to keep a couple of key things in mind when evaluating new home sales. They are counted when a contract to buy the home is signed much like the way pending-home sales are counted. This makes them a pretty early-stage indicator. However, even though new-home sales are important to the economy, they account for only about 13% of all home sale transactions which limits how much you can generalize about the broader market from trends in new home sales.
  • Last week, Senior Economist Jake Krimmel released the second quarter Realtor.com Market Clock(R) report, expanding our coverage to the 100 largest U.S. metros—doubling our coverage since last quarter’s launch.
  • The Market Clock tool helps you know where your local housing market is in the cycle and whether your housing market favors buyers or sellers so you have the right expectations as you try to navigate it. Senior Economist Jake Krimmel has a great overview video of the clock which we will link to below.
  • The latest data confirms that market fragmentation remains a key feature in the U.S. housing market. This means, there is more variation across markets today than we’ve seen historically, a trend that carried over from last quarter. In general, the tightest markets are in the Northeast and the Midwest, with more buyer-friendly conditions in the South, especially the Southeast. The housing market is in the most buyer-friendly position we’ve seen in any spring market since 2019. Additionally, the clock position in any market suggests additional buyer-friendly moves are likely to continue into summer. You can explore the local widgets for the 100 largest markets at realtor.com/marketclock.
  • In an update on the state of outstanding mortgage debt, Senior Economist Hannah Jones quantifies some of the factors that are behind the housing market’s tightness, specifically the lock-in effect. The analysis reveals that 22.1% of mortgages have a 6% or higher mortgage rate, up a smidge from 22% last quarter and up far more noticeably from one year ago when the share was under 19%. Some households are moving despite mortgage rates that remain above 6%, helping to slowly chip away at this factor that has been a drag on the market. But the “locked-in” cohort is still starkly visible in the data. The share of outstanding loans issued within the last 4 years dropped to 29.4% when the long-run average for this cohort is typically just over 50%. Further, loans aged 5-7 years typically make up roughly 20% of all loans, or roughly one in five. Today loans in the 5-7 year group–where pandemic buyers and refinancers sit–are twice as prevalent, comprising 41.2% or more than 2 in 5 outstanding loans. It’s understandable. It’s hard to give up a pandemic-era mortgage rate, especially if your home still works for you. But life happens and housing needs change. This is a market challenge that will resolve over time.
  • On a lighter note—Are you a fan of Yellowstone? I’ll admit that I have somehow not yet seen an episode, but you can’t miss the impact that show, its spinoffs, and similar series have had on the broader culture. Western ranch life is in vogue, inspiring Anthony Smith to take a look into Ranch Luxury Homes. Even a decade ago, the typical ranch home was more expensive. And over the last decade, ranch home prices have grown faster, climbing 112% compared to 66% for the broader market. Where are ranch homes found? By volume, they’re largely in Texas with Austin home to the most ranch listings for sale. The county level data lines up with this as well, with many of the top ranch counties centered in and around Austin. If instead of quantity, we’re looking at the priciness of ranch homes for sale, the center of gravity shifts to markets surrounding Yellowstone and national parks in Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho. Durango, Colorado is the furthest from the cluster, but not far from striking landscapes and a national forest too.
  • Finally, Economist Jiayi Xu published another major report last week focused on the climate risks facing U.S. real estate, and she joins us next to break down some of those key findings.
    

• Questions from the Mailbag:

  • Should buyers rush to lock a mortgage rate before the July Fed meeting?

  • If FEMA flood maps aren’t reliable, what’s the best way to research a potential purchase (or sell a property!) in the age of rapidly changing climate conditions?

• Closing:

  • That’s your outlook for the week. What climate risks are prevalent in your area? Are you already seeing their costs? Let me know in the comments below or on your preferred social channel. You can find all of our research reports and housing data at realtor.com/research, with all the direct links in the description. Subscribe on YouTube so you never miss a briefing. I’m Danielle Hale, thanks for watching, and I’ll see you here next Monday.

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