Space Exploration Technologies is likely to continue to bounce back, boosted by its artificial intelligence-focused corporate strategy under CEO Elon Musk, despite investors’ handwringing over outsized captial spending commitments, according to Argus Research. SpaceX is up 10% in early trading Friday, and after four straight weekly declines has rallied about 17% in the past five trading days. Argus raised its investment opinion on SpaceX to buy from hold Friday and repeated its 12-month price target of $160, implying 39% upside from Thursday’s close. “Despite an outlook for higher-than-expected capital expenditures — mostly for its AI infrastructure — we are encouraged by the rapid payback on these investments, given the robust growth in computing capacity,” analyst Steve Silver wrote in a report to clients. SpaceX launched its initial public offering at $135 a share on June 15 to much fanfare, gaining 20% in its first day of trading . But, SpaceX plunged 37% in July, and 14% on Wednesday after issuing its first earnings report as a public company. Late Tuesday, SpaceX reported second-quarter earnings and revenue that beat Wall Street expectations, at the same time as it revealed capital expenditures had increased six-fold to more than $18 billion during the same period, largely due to its deepening push into artificial intelligence. Despite the latest rebound, SpaceX was recently trading roughly 50% below its record high of $225.64 hit in mid-June, shortly after the IPO. SPCX mountain 2026-06-16 SpaceX has been cut in half since the mid-June top The Argus analyst noted that looming lockup expirations allowing long-time holders to sell their shares could add more selling pressure. More than 300 million shares could unlock and become eligible to trade later this month, according to a recent SpaceX prospectus. And, several hundred million more shares could become available for sale in September and October, too. But investors should view any near-term pullbacks as buying opportunities, given SpaceX’s strong fundamentals, Argus said. “We expect the shares to remain volatile given the initial lockup expiration for insider shares, and expect several additional tranches over the next year,” Silver wrote. “Nevertheless, SPCX’s strong operational performance in [the second quarter of 2026] and robust growth outlook over the coming years mitigate these factors.” The SpaceX “forward multiple has compressed significantly and much faster than we had expected,” given the slumping share prices, allowing for a cheaper entry point for would-be SpaceX investors. Argus projects that SpaceX will see revenue more than double in 2026 and 2027, and its shares surge under Elon Musk, going by the entrepreneur’s track record at Tesla . “The shares [of SpaceX] merit a BUY rating, in part, based on the track record of Elon Musk’s other IPO, Tesla (TSLA). For reference, a $10,000 investment made in TSLA in 2010 is worth $2.5 million today, even after a double-digit decline year-to-date,” the analyst wrote. The Argus call matches the Wall Street consensus. Of 36 analysts covering SpaceX, 28 rate it buy or strong buy, LSEG data shows.
